What is the “4-year cycle” in bitcoin?
Bitcoin's price moves in a repeating, cyclical pattern every four years, according to the “4-year cycle” theory.
Investors view this pattern as starting with a run to new all-time highs, a steep markdown in price during a bear market, then the price bottoms and the market gradually recovers into the next markup. These cycles are sometimes considered to be anchored to bitcoin's halving events, which happen every 210,000 blocks. But this cyclical view of asset markets is not unique to bitcoin.
In traditional markets, this theory is often represented as the “four-year” or “election cycle” phenomenon that influences the markets. There are four phases: the “election” year, the “post-election” year, the “midterm” year, and the “pre-election” year. According to this multi-year cycle view, the midterm election year tends to be the worst phase.